Grasslands are among the most climate-sensitive ecosystems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where interannual climate variability strongly constrains primary productivity. In Mexico, grassland-based livestock systems are highly exposed to fluctuations in precipitation and increasing temperatures, posing significant challenges for sustainability. This study evaluated the impact of climate variability on grassland productivity in Mexico and assessed the effectiveness of adaptive management strategies by integrating extended time series and local management practices.

A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining a longitudinal quantitative analysis of climate and vegetation time series (1990–2022) with qualitative information derived from local livestock management practices. Climate variability was characterized using precipitation and temperature records, while grassland productivity was assessed through satellite-derived NDVI indicators. Adaptive management strategies were identified through semi-structured interviews and categorized using thematic analysis. Statistical analyses included trend detection, correlation, and regression models linking climate variables with vegetation dynamics.

Results showed high interannual variability in precipitation across all regions, which explained a substantial proportion of NDVI variability. Temperature exhibited a moderate but significant negative effect on grassland productivity, particularly during dry years. Grasslands managed under adaptive strategies displayed higher productivity stability and reduced NDVI declines during drought events compared to conventionally managed systems. Qualitative findings revealed that flexible stocking rates, rotational grazing, strategic resting periods, and conservation of native species were key practices enhancing resilience.

The integration of quantitative and qualitative results highlights the critical role of adaptive management in buffering the impacts of climate variability on Mexican grasslands. These findings underscore the importance of promoting flexible, knowledge-based management strategies supported by long-term climate and vegetation monitoring to enhance the resilience of grassland-based livestock systems under increasing climatic uncertainty.